The U.S. Hands the Reckless Driver the Keys

Given the choice between reining in its client or watching it set the region alight, the president will opt for the latter.

The U.S. reassured its reckless client that it will still bail them out in a war in Lebanon:

Senior US officials reassured a delegation of top Israeli officials visiting Washington this week that if a full-out war were to break out on Israel’s northern border between Israel and Hezbollah, the Biden administration is fully prepared to back its ally, according to a senior administration official.

Escalation with Hezbollah would be disastrous for Israel and Lebanon, but it seems increasingly likely that Netanyahu will do this. The Biden administration has been credited with discouraging the Israeli government from escalating in Lebanon before now, but when it matters most they are failing to stop the conflict from spiraling out of control. The U.S. has reportedly been warning Hezbollah that it cannot restrain Israel, but the reality is that Biden simply will not. Given the choice between reining in its client or watching it set the region alight, the president will opt for the latter.

The conflict in the north is a direct result of the ongoing war in Gaza. If there were a lasting ceasefire in Gaza, it would be possible to deescalate with Hezbollah as well. The Biden administration simply refuses to put pressure on the Israeli government to secure that ceasefire, and it does nothing when Netanyahu publicly thumbs his nose at them once again. Instead they reassure the Israeli government that the U.S. will back them in yet another senseless war.

Barry Posen has written about how the U.S. encourages its clients to engage in “reckless driving” because it is such a reliable supporter. In these cases, the U.S. is too reliable in its support and the clients take this as a license to behave more aggressively than they otherwise would. As Posen put it in Restraint, “Small states, or non-state actors, which for any number of reasons have become confident in the U.S. commitment, behave recklessly. They pursue their own narrow interests even when they are at variance with the interests of the United States.”¹ The clients know that the U.S. will be there to support them no matter how much damage they cause, and that encourages them to push their luck. Reassuring Israel that the U.S. will back it in a war in Lebanon amounts to handing the reckless driver the keys and sending him on his way.

Supporting a new war in Lebanon would be terrible for U.S. interests and regional stability. A war in Lebanon would not only cause massive destruction and kill countless more civilians, but it would make a wider regional conflagration much harder to avoid. U.S. forces across the region would be at even greater risk. The costs of supporting the war in Gaza have already been significant for the U.S. The costs of supporting a new war in Lebanon would likely be even higher.

The 2006 war in Lebanon was an embarrassing failure for Israel, but a new war with Hezbollah would be much more dangerous. The damage that Hezbollah could do in an all-out war is considerable and should not be underestimated:

The group is estimated to have some 130,000 rockets and missiles that could quickly overwhelm the country’s sophisticated air defense systems and hit its biggest cities.

“I’ve read estimates of what Hezbollah could do to us in three days that are just horrendous,” Oren said. “You’re talking about knocking out all of our essential infrastructure, oil refineries, air bases, Dimona,” he said, referring to the site of the country’s nuclear research facility. 

Backing a client to the hilt is never a good idea. The Biden administration has proven that over the last eight and a half months as their unconditional backing for Israel has led to catastrophe. Israel is on the brink of another major war, and instead of trying to pull them back from the edge the Biden administration is reassuring them that they will continue to have U.S. backing no matter what. Netanyahu’s reckless driving is leading all of us over the cliff, and Biden refuses to pull the emergency brake.

1. Posen, Restraint: p. 35.