Pursuing Saudi-Israeli Normalization Is a Fool's Errand

The administration’s push for this agreement is a waste of time and energy that should be spent on pursuing a ceasefire and reducing regional tensions.

The Biden administration still hasn’t given up on its terrible plan for a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal. The Wall Street Journal reports:

The Biden administration is pushing for a long-shot diplomatic deal in coming months that presses Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a new commitment to Palestinian statehood in exchange for diplomatic recognition by Riyadh, U.S. and Saudi officials said.

The outlines of the deal are the same as they have been for the last year: the U.S. bribes the Saudis with major favors and commitments, the Saudis agree to recognize Israel, and the Israeli government doesn’t have to do much of anything. This was a terrible deal for the United States last year, it was a terrible deal before the start of the war in Gaza six months ago, and it will still be a terrible deal six months from now. The Biden administration would have the U.S. bear the burden of making this deal happen, and in return the U.S. gets saddled with more long-term security commitments to another awful client state.

As bad as the deal is for the U.S. because of the extensive concessions to Saudi Arabia, it’s still far from certain that the Saudis would be willing to go for it. The war in Gaza has made any dealings with Israel politically radioactive in Saudi Arabia and throughout the region. Even a repressive despot like Mohammed bin Salman would be hard-pressed to ignore popular sentiment right now. The crown prince can also afford to wait for a better offer if Trump is voted back in.

The Biden administration has been desperate to lock down a normalization agreement so that Biden has something, anything, that he can point to as a diplomatic success during his campaign, but the agreement is still very unlikely to be concluded. The Israeli government absolutely opposes a Palestinian state. Even if we assume that the Saudis would be willing to accept token gestures in lieu of real concessions, the Israeli government might balk at anything that even hints at statehood.

The administration’s push for this agreement is a waste of time and energy that should be spent on pursuing a ceasefire and reducing regional tensions. In the unlikely event that they succeed in getting the deal, it would be extremely detrimental to U.S. interests. The U.S. has been mired in the Middle East for more than thirty years, and an agreement that ties the U.S. even more closely to the Saudis would make this worse. It is ludicrous that this is the focus of the administration’s attention when there is a man-made famine caused by the government that they are bending over backwards to help.

The U.S. shouldn’t be making such a major effort to do favors for two of its worst clients when the record shows that backing these states to the hilt has only encouraged their most destructive instincts. The Biden administration’s approach to the region was divorced from reality before October 7. They have evidently learned nothing in the last six months. They continue to chase after an unrealistic diplomatic goal that wouldn’t solve any problems even if they were successful.

The U.S. needs to be heading for the exits in the Middle East. If Biden has his way, the U.S. would be more tightly ensnared in its conflicts and rivalries than ever. Americans should reject any normalization deal that adds to U.S. security commitments and binds our country closer to bad client states.