Pelosi's Dangerous Stunt

It is clear that the Chinese government would consider a Taiwan visit by Pelosi as a gratuitous jab in the eye.

Ed Luce criticizes Pelosi for her reported plans to visit Taiwan next month:

The US is within its rights to help Taiwan’s self-defence, discourage Chinese aggression, and try to broker a peaceful outcome to this horrific conundrum that threatens global peace. It is in no way within its right state of mind to dabble in pyromania on China’s doorstep. Pelsoi may think she is acting on principle. She is in fact exhibiting the exorbitant irresponsibility of the US legislator — power without responsibility; the self-indulgence of a figure whose job it has never been to pick up the geopolitical pieces.

As I discuss in my column this week, I agree with Luce’s view that a visit by the Speaker or any high-ranking U.S. official to Taiwan would be a serious mistake. News of the visit has already created a headache for the Biden administration, which has reportedly been lobbying against it before now. The president said earlier this week that the military didn’t think it was a “good idea right now,” but he didn’t elaborate on what he meant by that or what he thought about it beyond that. Pelosi has no compelling reason to go to Taiwan, and the risks of her doing so are great enough that it should have been ruled out months ago when it was first being proposed.

It is clear that the Chinese government would consider a Taiwan visit by Pelosi as a gratuitous jab in the eye over an issue that matters far more to them than it does to the U.S. I don’t believe for a minute that there is any serious fear that Pelosi’s plane would be shot down, as she ludicrously suggested yesterday, and the idea that China would establish a no-fly zone over Taiwan is even more preposterous. That said, we should take Chinese threats of “resolute and forceful measures” seriously, and our leaders should not take actions that needlessly invite punitive Chinese measures against Taiwan.

It would be absurd if the desire to “show support” for Taiwan precipitated a new crisis that harms Taiwan. Even if the Chinese government’s response were limited to economic warfare and coercive diplomacy, it could end up inflicting unnecessary costs on Taiwan. The Chinese reaction to the proposed visit tells us something about the debate over “strategic clarity” on Taiwan. If the official response to the idea of a Pelosi visit is this intense and angry, how much worse do you suppose the response would be if the U.S. made an explicit security commitment to defend Taiwan?

China hawks keep saying that U.S. officials should be able to go wherever they please, but on this issue that rule makes little sense. Top U.S. officials typically don’t go to Taiwan precisely because it antagonizes the Chinese government to no purpose. What is gained if the Speakers visits Taiwan only to worsen bilateral tensions and sabotage any possibility of U.S.-Chinese cooperation on other issues? The U.S. and Taiwan both stand to lose if Pelosi goes through with this. As I said in the column, it isn’t 1997 anymore and the U.S.-China relationship is in much worse shape than it was then. The U.S. can ill afford to provoke a crisis with another major power, and Biden needs to shut this proposed visit down before it turns into something truly dangerous.