There is a huge, qualitative mismatch between the interests of the US and China with respect to Taiwan.
For the US, China hawks have had to frame the issue in terms of two abstract interests: the defense of liberal democracy and America's status as the undisputed global hegemon.
For China, Taiwan is about resolving an unfinished civil war. China considers Taiwan to be Chinese territory -- and Taipei's government did not dispute this position until less than 20 years ago. China also has a strong ideological component at stake: reunification of Taiwan with Beijing would symbolize the end of the Century of National Humiliation which China began suffering at the hands of Western powers in the mid-19th Century. A Chinese national who is not thrilled with every aspect of the CCP's rule in China could quite easily say "I'm not wild about my government, but the core interests and the honor of the Chinese nation are at stake here" when analyzing this dispute.
The balance of material power may favor the US for now (I'm not even sure about this because the American military has been geared towards counterterrorism for two decades at this point, but I'll assume for the sake of argument). But in terms of the balance of wills, I would say that China has a decided advantage.
It's also noteworthy to remember that our would-be allies in this conflagration, the Taiwanese people, do not seem interested enough in investing in their own security. Oh the young ones will shout aloud their hatred of China, but in the very next sentence will demure about potential plans to re-introduce its prior 20-24 month mandatory military conscription.
Come wartime, the Taiwanese people are way too complascent (and also compromised by many latent pro-Chinese political leaders, business tycoons, and military brass), for them to mount any serious resistance.
Their general response to a potential Chinese attack? "Oh, the Americans will intervene for us."
As delusional and psychopathic that I believe most of our leadership to be, I find it hard to believe that in a crunch the US would risk a real war with China. Our interventions since the end of WWII have been directed only against countries where we enjoyed overwhelming air superiority. China, besides being a nuclear armed power, would be a near peer opponent against the US in terms of air power. US carrier-based aircraft would be at great risk of Chinese anti-ship missiles, so the US would need to use air bases in Japan and South Korea, assuming they would risk this. I doubt these two countries want to risk going to war with their main trading partner.
On the other hand, writing articles like these in somewhat reputable media may help influence Congress to spend even more billions on the military….because, China. I guess it’s a good racket if you can stomach it.
As much as I think it would be a shame for Taiwan to turn into Hong Kong writ large should China assert its claim, since Xi is transparently lying about "One Country, Two Systems", for anyone to claim that the United States has a greater interest in Taiwan's future than the nations nearby is delusional.
There is a huge, qualitative mismatch between the interests of the US and China with respect to Taiwan.
For the US, China hawks have had to frame the issue in terms of two abstract interests: the defense of liberal democracy and America's status as the undisputed global hegemon.
For China, Taiwan is about resolving an unfinished civil war. China considers Taiwan to be Chinese territory -- and Taipei's government did not dispute this position until less than 20 years ago. China also has a strong ideological component at stake: reunification of Taiwan with Beijing would symbolize the end of the Century of National Humiliation which China began suffering at the hands of Western powers in the mid-19th Century. A Chinese national who is not thrilled with every aspect of the CCP's rule in China could quite easily say "I'm not wild about my government, but the core interests and the honor of the Chinese nation are at stake here" when analyzing this dispute.
The balance of material power may favor the US for now (I'm not even sure about this because the American military has been geared towards counterterrorism for two decades at this point, but I'll assume for the sake of argument). But in terms of the balance of wills, I would say that China has a decided advantage.
It's also noteworthy to remember that our would-be allies in this conflagration, the Taiwanese people, do not seem interested enough in investing in their own security. Oh the young ones will shout aloud their hatred of China, but in the very next sentence will demure about potential plans to re-introduce its prior 20-24 month mandatory military conscription.
Come wartime, the Taiwanese people are way too complascent (and also compromised by many latent pro-Chinese political leaders, business tycoons, and military brass), for them to mount any serious resistance.
Their general response to a potential Chinese attack? "Oh, the Americans will intervene for us."
As delusional and psychopathic that I believe most of our leadership to be, I find it hard to believe that in a crunch the US would risk a real war with China. Our interventions since the end of WWII have been directed only against countries where we enjoyed overwhelming air superiority. China, besides being a nuclear armed power, would be a near peer opponent against the US in terms of air power. US carrier-based aircraft would be at great risk of Chinese anti-ship missiles, so the US would need to use air bases in Japan and South Korea, assuming they would risk this. I doubt these two countries want to risk going to war with their main trading partner.
On the other hand, writing articles like these in somewhat reputable media may help influence Congress to spend even more billions on the military….because, China. I guess it’s a good racket if you can stomach it.
As much as I think it would be a shame for Taiwan to turn into Hong Kong writ large should China assert its claim, since Xi is transparently lying about "One Country, Two Systems", for anyone to claim that the United States has a greater interest in Taiwan's future than the nations nearby is delusional.