Biden Should Not Pursue Saudi-Israeli Normalization

While the U.S. would be on the hook for paying the price to make it happen, very little would change.

Tom Friedman oversells the significance of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia:

First, a U.S.-Saudi security pact that produces normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and the Jewish state — while curtailing Saudi-China relations — would be a game changer for the Middle East, bigger than the Camp David peace treaty between Egypt and Israel.

There may be people in the administration that want Biden to believe this is true, but it isn’t. While the U.S. would be on the hook for paying the price to make it happen and it would mire the U.S. even deeper in the region, very little would change and the things that would change would not be for the better. There would be no fundamental changes in the region. The “game” would not be changed at all. It would simply become more like what it already was: the U.S. subsidizes bad clients that take whatever they can get and then they work against American interests whenever it suits them. It’s clear enough what the Saudis and the Israelis would get out of this arrangement, but all that the U.S. gets is a very expensive bill whose full cost won’t be known for years to come.

If a deal with the Saudis ends up being anything like the ones brokered with Morocco and the UAE, it would mean that the U.S. bribes an authoritarian government to have formal diplomatic relations with Israel by giving them political and military favors. The Palestinians would once again be hung out to dry, the oppressive system that they live under would remain in place and probably continue to get worse, and warmongers in the U.S. and Israel would continue their business of trying to stoke a conflict with Iran. The U.S. would be hugging both clients more closely at the exact moment when it should be pushing both away.

Since Saudi Arabia hasn’t been at war with Israel in generations, it would barely deserve the name of peace. In exchange for this not-so-significant breakthrough, the U.S. would pledge to go to war for Saudi Arabia. That is abhorrent in itself, and it would be lousy negotiating on our part. The U.S. promises something huge and potentially very costly that binds our government to defend them from attack, and in exchange the Saudis agree…to open an embassy? This is the sort of deal Trump would make and then claim that it was the most beautiful deal in the history of the world.

It also makes no sense to be adding formal security commitments in the Middle East when the U.S. already has far too many commitments as it is. It would amount to doubling down on an extremely stupid bet on the Saudi royal family. If the last decade has shown anything, it is that U.S. and Saudi interests have been diverging for a while and a close security relationship with their government is bad for America.

Friedman assumes that a normalization deal with the Saudis will require that “Israel make meaningful concessions to the Palestinians,” but if there is any deal to be had we can be pretty sure that it won’t include that. The Israeli government has shown again and again that expanding settlements and extending its control over Palestinian territory matter more than other considerations. The current coalition under Netanyahu is just more brazen about it.

The Trump administration facilitated the deals with Morocco and the UAE by giving them things they wanted from the U.S. (recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, advanced weapons for the UAE). The Israeli government didn’t have to make any real concessions of their own, but they still got whatever benefits normalization provided. A Saudi deal would be much the same.

Friedman pretends that the Israeli government foreswore annexation of the West Bank as the price of normalization with the UAE, but all that they did was to forego making a formal declaration. The annexation of the West Bank is happening as we speak as the Israeli government extends civilian control over the occupied territory. That either means that the days of normalization between the UAE and Israel are numbered, or it means that the UAE never really cared about that and will maintain ties while the annexation goes ahead. This is hardly a promising example to follow unless you are Netanyahu and his allies.

Making a deal with the Saudis isn’t going to lead to “peace” between Israel and “the whole Muslim world” in any case because the Saudi government does not command the allegiance of that “world” and it is silly to think that it does. Dozens of other states around the world aren’t going to fall in line suddenly because one despot strikes a bargain. If anything, the fact that the Saudis would be willing to accept American bribes to recognize Israel would probably go over very badly in many predominantly Muslim countries. The Saudis would be hurting their reputation. They would not be granting the others permission to copy them. Instead of the Saudis bringing these other countries along with it, other governments might seize on the opportunity to reaffirm their support for the Palestinian cause. This is most likely in those predominantly Muslim states that are the most democratic, since normalization with Israel is wildly unpopular whenever the question is asked.

This gets at the larger flaw with all these agreements: they are built on sand. The authoritarian governments that have been making these agreements with Israel can do so only because they ignore what their people want and because they harshly repress any dissent against the government’s official line. If these states were democratic, it would be very unlikely that Israel could get recognition from them without making real concessions on Palestinian rights and statehood.

These agreements are rotten bargains paid for by the U.S., and the Biden administration should want to have nothing to do with creating another one. As he often is, Friedman is wrong that a deal with the Saudis would be “hugely in America’s strategic interest.” It would be a colossal, unforced error that would come back to haunt the United States in more ways than one.