Why Hawks Keep Getting Russia Wrong
Exaggerating the threat and misunderstanding what Russia wants are good ways to blunder into a serious crisis.
Jeff Hawn makes a persuasive case that Russia is not going to attack Ukraine:
But is Russia actually about to attack Ukraine? The answer, based on the empirical evidence, seems to be a resounding no. These moves might be disturbing, especially given Russia’s history in Ukraine—but they don’t presage war.
Kelley Vlahos and I talked about this subject durin…