Why Hawks Keep Getting Russia Wrong

Exaggerating the threat and misunderstanding what Russia wants are good ways to blunder into a serious crisis.

Jeff Hawn makes a persuasive case that Russia is not going to attack Ukraine:

But is Russia actually about to attack Ukraine? The answer, based on the empirical evidence, seems to be a resounding no. These moves might be disturbing, especially given Russia’s history in Ukraine—but they don’t presage war.

Kelley Vlahos and I talked about this subject durin…