The Wisdom of Stepping Back From the Edge

The proposed Pelosi trip is a useful test for separating careful analysts from ideologues.

Matt Kroenig thinks the Pelosi trip to Taiwan has to happen now that it has been reported on:

She and the Biden administration cannot back down now. That would be a sign of weakness and essentially teach the CCP that it does get a veto over the travel schedules of U.S. officials.

The proposed Pelosi trip is a useful test for separating careful analysts from ideologues. The analyst weighs the potential benefits (few to none) against the likely risks (rising tensions, possible crisis, unnecessary strains on Taiwan) and concludes that the visit isn’t worth the risk. The ideologue looks at the same situation and concludes that the visit has to go forward no matter what because the U.S. has to “show strength” and show Beijing that they don’t have a say in the matter. The fear of appearing “weak” usually leads to far worse decision-making than does prudent caution, and here we have a good example of how the former encourages recklessness for the sake of national pride.