The U.S. Doesn't Need More Nukes

The existence of an arms race is not a good reason to continue it.

Hal Brands is in full fearmongering mode:

By the early 2030s, the US will likely face two nuclear peers, not one.

The claim that China will soon have a nuclear arsenal as large as ours is a popular one in hawkish circles, but it wildly exaggerates the threat. It is true that the Chinese government has been expanding its nuclear arsenal in recent years, but there is nothing to support the speculation that it will soon match what the U.S. has. It is not likely that China will be a nuclear peer of the United States a decade from now. Treating this far-fetched scenario as if it were likely to happen is nothing but the most egregious threat inflation to sell a new buildup. We have no reason to believe that the Chinese government is even trying to achieve parity with the U.S. As Amrita Jash acknowledged earlier this year, this assumption “is not supported by any concrete evidence.”