The Return of 'Domino Theory'

If the U.S. wants to preserve its position in Asia and maintain its alliances, the worst thing it could do is to gamble on a major war that it probably can’t win when it isn’t obliged to fight.

Howard French makes a very strong claim in his latest article on Taiwan:

This brings us to the most fundamental level of what this is about: sheer power. If the United States allowed China to seize control of Taiwan, America’s position in Asia, and hence as a global power, would tumble overnight. Its alliance structure in the East would collapse, and China would become the regional hegemon, despite its many protestations to the contrary.

Many China hawks hold this outsized view of Taiwan’s importance to U.S. interests, so it is worth asking whether this makes any sense at all. Note that he doesn’t say that the U.S. position in Asia would be somewhat weakened by a Chinese seizure of Taiwan, but that it would “tumble overnight” and its alliance structure would “collapse.” He doesn’t elaborate on why this would happen, and he writes this only at the end of the article without providing any explanation. It is simply asserted as if it were obvious, but it is anything but that.

Why would the U.S. position “tumble overnight” and why would its alliances fail? One would think that U.S. treaty allies would be more interested in strengthening their alliances with Washington if China took control of Taiwan. It does not add up that a “failure” to defend a non-ally would cause allied governments to lose confidence in U.S. commitments to them.