The Politics of the Nuclear Deal

Biden and his advisers need to focus on the political downsides of being the president who let the nuclear deal expire on his watch.

Michael Hirsh reports on the lingering toxic effects of Trump’s foreign policy decisions, including the decision to renege on the nuclear deal. Biden’s timidity on reversing Trump’s policy has left many observers baffled:

“The decision-making process in the administration is such that people who have the last word with the president are prioritizing domestic policy over foreign policy,” said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group, who is a former top aide to Robert Malley, the Biden administration’s chief Iran negotiator.

The result, Vaez said, was “tragic” for Biden and would come back to haunt him, especially with Iran edging toward potential nuclear breakout—the point at which the country has enough fissile material for a bomb. “For someone like him with so much foreign-policy experience to allow politics to play such a role is unbelievable.”

Biden’s mishandling of the revival of the nuclear deal has loomed larger than some of his other foreign policy mistakes because it is such a high-profile issue, it was a major difference between Biden and Trump during the campaign, and the magnitude of Trump’s failure was so great. It has also undermined Biden’s claim to competence in matters of foreign policy, which his supporters assumed was one of his strengths. Rejoining the agreement is a no-brainer on the merits, so it has been discouraging to see the process drag on for more than a year when U.S. reentry should have been relatively straightforward. Vaez says that it is “unbelievable” that Biden is allowing domestic politics to play such a dominant role in the decision-making process, but it is unfortunately all too believable given the president’s tendency to favor the status quo even when it was created by Trump. Add in political calculations during an election year, and you have a recipe for inaction and stagnation.

Carl Bildt and Javier Solana are similarly mystified by Biden’s slow-walking approach:

So it’s puzzling that, after running on a return to the nuclear deal and promising that “America is back,” Biden has been slow-walking diplomacy that U.S. allies strongly support. The common refrain is that he is “playing it safe” on Iran ahead of the upcoming midterms. But frankly, being the president under whose watch efforts to contain Iran’s nuclear efforts succeeded would be a much bigger hit for Biden and the Democrats in advance of the 2024 elections.

Biden has fallen into the same trap that has snared Democratic presidents for decades: because he fears appearing “weak” against a foreign adversary, he ends up taking a watered-down version of the hardline position that he ran against. Determined not to appear “weak,” Biden is letting his domestic enemies dictate the limits of his foreign policy, which of course makes him look much worse than if they were bashing him as an appeaser.

Trump’s presidency is proof that it is much easier to destroy than it is to build something lasting. He scrapped multiple agreements and treaties at virtually no political cost to himself, and the treaties he killed are never coming back. The nuclear deal stands on the edge of a knife, and right now I wouldn’t bet much on its survival unless something changes soon. It is a huge drain on the government’s time and resources when it has to repair the damage done by a reckless president, but it is important repair work that still needs to be done.

Biden has invested considerable time and attention into the effort to reverse Trump’s decision to renege on the nuclear deal, and it has been a mostly thankless task with no big political benefits awaiting him even if he succeeds. Salvaging the nuclear deal isn’t going to fix Biden’s political problems, but it would still give him a success that he can tout and it averts a worse crisis that could end up consuming his presidency. Instead of thinking in terms of the backlash that the president might face from successfully reviving an important diplomatic agreement, he and his advisers need to focus on the political downsides of being the president who let the nuclear deal expire on his watch.

Biden needs to have something that he can point to in the 2024 campaign as a significant foreign policy success that distinguishes him from the Republican nominee, whoever that turns out to be. Since it is more likely than not that Republicans will control both houses after the midterms, Biden will need to be bolder on foreign policy than he has been if he is going to have anything to run on in two years’ time. Letting the nuclear deal slip into oblivion out of fear that bad faith critics will attack Biden isn’t going to save any Democratic seats, and the collapse of the nuclear deal will only encourage Iran hawks to intensify their campaign for military action and regime change. If Biden wants to avoid that outcome, he needs to take the short-term hit and make the necessary concessions to keep the deal alive.