The 'Peace' Deal That Wasn't

Paul Pillar explains the costs of Pompeo’s partisan conduct as Secretary of State, and here he comments on the overhyped Israel/UAE “deal”:

That Pompeo spoke to the Republican convention while on a foreign trip supposedly devoted to diplomatic business compounds this and the other problems that his appearance involved. Based on his itinerary, he evidently is trying to milk as much as he can from the recently announced establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE.  This arrangement between two states that were not warring against each other brings peace to no one and instead sharpens lines of conflict between the Gulf Arabs and not just Iran but also Turkey, in disputes mired in different views about political Islam and the Muslim Brotherhood. Pompeo’s use of Jerusalem as a prop leaves unstated how the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is very much unresolved and how the development with the UAE makes resolution less likely because it reduces further any Israeli government incentive to resolve it.

One of the unintentionally hilarious moments during Pompeo’s disgraceful convention stunt was when he referred to the Israel/UAE “deal” as something that “our grandchildren will read about in their history books.” Considering how uninterested other Arab states are in imitating the UAE’s position and how shaky the agreement itself seems to be, it is likely that it will be little more than a footnote in the history of an otherwise failed foreign policy.

The main role that the U.S. had in securing the “deal” was in promising the UAE access to advanced weapons, including the F-35, and the Israeli government has made it abundantly clear that they cannot accept that. The “deal” was only a little more substantive than other publicity stunts that the Trump administration has misrepresented as diplomatic breakthroughs, but not by much. Insofar as Israel-UAE normalization moves ahead, this simply formalizes an arrangement that had been developing on its own. If it should fall apart because the promised U.S. weapons and planes are not forthcoming, we can mark it down as another instance of stagecraft taking the place of statecraft at a Trump State Department run by someone who despises diplomacy. The Trump administration is so desperate for a perceived foreign policy “win” after years of failure that they will tout anything, no matter how meager, as something that will echo through the centuries. In usual boastful, arrogant fashion, Pompeo massively oversold a modest agreement that may not survive more than a few years.

The false labeling of the “deal” as a peace agreement is typical of this administration. Just as the “denuclearization” statement signed at Singapore had no effect on the continued development of North Korea’s nuclear weapons arsenal, this “deal” resolves no conflicts and seems likely to intensify others.