The Exaggerated Fear of an 'Iranian Bomb'

According to our government’s own estimates, it has been almost twenty years since Iran’s earlier work on nuclear weapons stopped.

Paul Poast asks us to reconsider whether the threat of an Iranian nuclear weapon would be as great as many claim:

Amid this debate, however, it’s worth considering whether the fears of a nuclear-armed Iran might be overblown. The arguments against Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon presume that having the bomb would embolden the regime and bolster its ability to destabilize the region. But what if that’s not the case? In fact, it’s unlikely that any of the worst-case scenarios would actually unfold if Iran acquired a bomb, as becomes clear by reconsidering three key reasons behind the U.S. opposition to Iran going nuclear.

Poast makes a strong case that Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons would not be as dangerous and destabilizing as is commonly supposed. He suggests that if the Iranian government were to pursue such weapons, it would be primarily for reasons of status and prestige. I’m inclined to agree. I would add that the Iranian government would probably be satisfied with developing an advanced nuclear program that gives them the capability to produce such weapons without ever crossing the line by building them. This gives them the status that comes from their technical achievements, but it avoids significant risks. Iran would, in fact, be within its rights under the Non-Proliferation Treaty to do this, but the U.S. and several regional governments have insisted on holding Iran to a different, stricter standard.

For at least half my lifetime, Iran hawks have been warning about an “Iranian bomb” and claiming that the Iranian government is “hell-bent” on acquiring nuclear weapons. Mitt Romney, who never fails to get important foreign policy questions wrong, was still saying this just two months ago. For people so “hell-bent” on something, they have certainly taken their time. The reality is that Iran has not had a nuclear weapons program for almost that entire time. According to our government’s own estimates, it has been almost twenty years since Iran’s earlier work on nuclear weapons stopped. As far as anyone knows that work has not restarted, but we continue to talk about an “Iranian bomb” as if it were just around the corner.