Stop Hyping the '2027 Window' on Taiwan

One big problem with the “2027 window” is that it is something that U.S. military officials seem to have cooked up on their own based on a misreading.

Speaking of threat inflation, the official U.S. line on a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan is becoming ever more irresponsible and alarmist. This was what the Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Michael Gilday, said yesterday:

“So when we talk about the 2027 window, in my mind, that has to be a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window. I can’t rule it out.”

Gilday’s time frame is based on an assessment last year by Philip Davidson, the retired admiral who was then head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, that Beijing’s military might try to unify Taiwan with mainland China “within the next six years”.

One big problem with the “2027 window” is that it is something that U.S. military officials seem to have cooked up on their own based on a misreading. It has been clear for many months that U.S. officials are misinterpreting and misunderstanding the Chinese government’s public statements on this question, but instead of testing and revising their claims they are indulging in increasingly absurd speculation.