No One Will 'Win' Another Cold War

The relatively peaceful demise of the Soviet Union should not fool us into assuming that a future major power rivalry will end with one side ceasing to exist.

Matt Kroenig gets another big foreign policy question wrong:

We were looking for a pithy quote, and we were delighted when we landed on former President Ronald Reagan’s classic statement about his goal for the first Cold War. He said that some might think it is simple or even simplistic, but his policy for the Soviet Union is “we win, they lose.” In the book, we argue that this clear objective should also be the U.S. and allied goal for the new Cold War with China.

It is never wise to pursue an unrealistic goal or to commit to a policy whose end can’t be achieved at an acceptable cost. A major power rivalry with a state like China is unlikely to lead to a clear outcome where side prevails and the other is defeated without a major war. A Cold War-like rivalry with China will not end the same way that the rivalry with the Soviets did. Relying on a Reagan-era mantra for foreign policy today is mindless nostalgia at best.

The relatively peaceful demise of the Soviet Union should not fool us into assuming that a future major power rivalry will end with one side ceasing to exist.