Killing Iran Diplomacy with Sanctions

The U.S. and Israel did most of the work to kill diplomacy with Iran, but Britain, France, and Germany went out of their way to finish the job.

U.N. sanctions on Iran have been reimposed thanks to the foolish European governments that used the “snapback” mechanism in the original nuclear deal:

U.N. sanctions imposed by the Security Council in resolutions adopted between 2006 and 2010 were reinstated at 8 p.m. EDT on Saturday (0000 GMT on Sunday). Attempts to delay the return of all sanctions on Iran failed on the sidelines of the annual gathering of world leaders at the U.N. this week.

The return of U.N. sanctions will achieve nothing except to inflict more misery on the people of Iran. The U.K., France, and Germany were wrong in pushing for the reimposition of sanctions. If the goal was to revive nuclear negotiations, threatening Iran with more punishment shortly after Israel and the U.S. attacked their country was the worst way to go about it. The three European governments acted as accomplices to the Trump and Netanyahu’s aggression after the fact, and they shredded what little credibility with Iran they had left. The U.S. and Israel did most of the work to kill diplomacy with Iran, but Britain, France, and Germany went out of their way to finish the job.

The new agreement that Iran reached with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) earlier this month will go nowhere as a result. The agreement with the IAEA would have allowed inspections to resume, but it was contingent on no further hostile acts against Iran. The use of the snapback mechanism to bring back U.N. sanctions was one of the hostile acts that the Iranian government explicitly identified as a reason for the termination of the agreement:

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday that Tehran would scrap an agreement to let the U.N. watchdog inspect its nuclear sites if Western powers reinstated U.N. sanctions.

In addition to the collapse of inspections, there is a real possibility that Iran finally pulls the trigger on withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The Iranian government has warned many times that it might do this if the snapback mechanism were used. At this point, Iran has few incentives to remain in the treaty when it is not allowed to develop its peaceful nuclear program without facing economic warfare and military attacks.

If Iran quits the NPT, Western governments will have scored a monumental own goal with their mindless reliance on sanctions to try to force Iran to capitulate. Withrdrawal from the treaty doesn’t necessarily mean that the Iranian government will choose to build nuclear weapons, but it would still be a significant blow to the cause of nonproliferation. The U.S. and Israel would almost certainly take withdrawal from the NPT as an excuse to launch more attacks. The stupidity of Starmer, Macron, and Merz makes another war in the region more likely.

When U.N. sanctions were first imposed on Iran over the nuclear issue, there was a real international consensus among all major powers. That consensus no longer exists. The return of U.N. sanctions on Iran will likely lead to a lot of sanctions busting by governments that don’t agree with how the snapback mechanism was abused. Russia is unlikely to respect the renewed arms embargo, and China is unlikely to give up its appetite for Iranian oil. Other states, including some U.S. partners, will have their own reasons for helping Iran to evade the sanctions.

Despite the repeated U.S. and Israeli provocations, the Iranian government was still willing to negotiate a new nonproliferation agreement. Iran was in the process of doing that when it was shamefully and illegally attacked by the U.S. and Israel this summer. If any states deserve to face international sanctions for their actions, Israel and the U.S. should be at the top of the list, but of course they face no consequences for trampling on the U.N. Charter and killing Iranian citizens. Even after the attacks on their country, the Iranian government was open to a diplomatic solution, but only if the aggressors pledged not to strike again.

The three European governments then delivered the final blow to finish off diplomacy. They took Iran’s understandable reluctance to return to the negotiating table with a government that had just attacked Iranian territory as unacceptable defiance. Instead of trying to find a reasonable compromise, the Europeans issued an ultimatum that Iran was never going to accept. In the end, the Iranian government was the only one that truly wanted to find a diplomatic solution, but it had no reliable negotiating partners.

The U.S. and its allies spent the last two decades turning a small but manageable problem in Iran’s nuclear program and making it into a much larger and more dangerous one. The use of sanctions to try to compel changes in Iranian behavior backfired again and again, and with each new round of sanctions Iran’s nuclear program expanded and became more sophisticated. It was only when the U.S. and its allies were willing to compromise and back away from their maximalist demands that they made any progress in negotiations.

The original nuclear deal was a triumph of good sense and moderation, so of course it was not long for this world. Now it is dead and buried. It is doubtful that we will see a comprehensive nonproliferation agreement like it again for a long time to come.

It remains to be seen if this latest Western blunder will lead to Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons, but that outcome is much more likely today than it was just a few months ago.