It Is Never the Right Time for a Saudi Pact
It is doubtful that there will be enough votes to approve a treaty with Saudi Arabia because of how politically toxic and strategically stupid it is.
Dennis Ross has never been one to give up on a bad policy. Here he is in Foreign Affairs arguing that now is the right time for the terrible Saudi-Israeli deal, and he doesn’t think a little thing like treaty ratification will be that big of a hurdle:
Such a treaty would require 67 votes for approval in the U.S. Senate, which might seem like a tall order. But with the right timing, it would be possible. If the normalization agreement is reached before the U.S. presidential election in November, the Senate could consider it during its lame-duck session in December. If Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, wins the election, Democrats would respond to Biden’s call to support ratification, especially as his last major act as president. For their part, Republicans have generally favored the idea of a breakthrough like this and would be unlikely at that point to oppose it if their nominee, Donald Trump, has just lost the election.
Ross has quite the imagination, but there is no chance that there is enough time this year to complete a Saudi pact even if Biden had the votes (and he doesn’t). The window for pushing this bad deal forward has closed for now. The election campaign will consume most of the rest of the year, and there will be no appetite or time to tackle a major treaty during the transition. A new security commitment of this magnitude shouldn’t be rushed through in a lame-duck session in any case, and it is doubtful that there will be enough votes to approve a treaty with Saudi Arabia because of how politically toxic and strategically stupid it is.