How Big Will the Foreign Policy Differences Be in 2024?
If there’s one constant in American politics, it is that both major party nominees fight with each other over foreign policy within a very narrow range.
In recent presidential election cycles, foreign policy has taken a far back seat to domestic (economic or culture-war) issues and themes. But that might not be the case in 2024—an election that may do more to determine America’s future stance toward the world than any in living memory.
That’s because the distance separating the Biden/Harris ticket and the Republican challenger is likely to be unusually vast [bold mine-DL].
It is possible that there will be more foreign policy differences between the major party nominees than there have been in many recent presidential elections, but I doubt very much that the gap between the two tickets will be vast. If there’s one constant in American politics, it is that both major party nominees fight with each other over foreign policy within a very narrow range. Even when you have a nominee as unconventional and ridiculous as Trump, the policy differences remain remarkably small. To the extent that there are significant differences, they usually come from the fusion of culture war grievances with foreign policy issues.
There are a few issues where there will be some noticeable differences, at least on paper, but when it comes to basic assumptions about the U.S. role in the world, its alliances, and its strategy there is still very little substantive disagreement. Even on the few issues where the candidates appear to be diametrically opposed, they are usually divided by disagreements over means and not ends.