Great Power Rivalry Makes Us Stupid

Framing U.S. foreign policy in Asia in terms of zero-sum rivalry with China encourages silly overreactions to minor problems.

Biden cut short his overseas trip this week because of debt ceiling shenanigans, and some of the reactions have been predictably absurd:

What the cancellation means, in the broadest of terms, is that America’s domestic politics is undermining American foreign policy at a crucial time, in a critical region. Analysts and diplomats warn that fears of an unreliable and dysfunctional America will now be revived in Asia and the Pacific, where the United States has only recently started to build momentum in its efforts to counter Chinese influence.

“It will reinforce lingering doubts about U.S. staying power,” said Hal Brands, a professor of global affairs at Johns Hopkins University.

Framing U.S. foreign policy in Asia in terms of zero-sum rivalry with China encourages silly overreactions to minor problems. Because of the rivalry, every episode like this is turned into a “setback” for the U.S. and a win for China, but this is a foolish way of looking at things. The New York Times’ headline declares that Biden’s canceled trip is “to China’s benefit,” but one will strain to find proof that China gets anything out of it. It is regrettable that Biden won’t be completing his planned trip, but to judge from some of the coverage one might think that the U.S. alliance system itself was in danger of collapsing.