Don't Drink the Credibility Kool-Aid

If you drank the hegemonist Kool-Aid, you would insist that the U.S. is never allowed to withdraw from any conflict and that it must take sides in every crisis that arises.

Stephen Walt considers why so many American policymakers and analysts are obsessed with credibility:

Here’s the real kicker: The United States has a credibility problem in part because its own geopolitical position is so favorable. There are relatively few interests that are truly vital to the United States’ independence or prosperity, yet it still maintains a far-flung global presence and has made a lot of promises to protect other countries.

Fears of losing reputation and credibility are most common in those states that preside over vast empires in which their commitments exceed their ability to fulfill them. It was this fear that kept Spain at war with the Dutch for decades even though it was obvious that continuing the war was ruinous for the monarchy’s finances. It is imperial and quasi-imperial states that are at greatest risk of overextending themselves because they tend to imagine distant threats that either don’t exist or exaggerate the ones that aren’t all that significant. Being always on the lookout for threats to their domains, they begin to chase after phantoms at great expense.