Debunking Some Nonsense About Nonproliferation

The best way to shore up nonproliferation over the long term is to keep existing arsenals limited and then work on reducing them as much as possible.

Bill McGurn asks a dumb question:

Since it came into effect in 1970, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty has assumed almost sacred status in the liberal firmament. But can it survive Joe Biden’s presidency?

The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has survived a long time and has withstood the emergence of several new nuclear weapons states during that time, so we should not expect it to fall apart anytime soon. No doubt there have been some significant setbacks to the cause of nonproliferation in recent years, but the reality is that with the exception of a handful of states the NPT enjoys overwhelming international support. Almost all states belong to the treaty, including Iran, and only one state joined the treaty and then left it later. The latter was North Korea, which withdrew in 2003 and not in 1993 as McGurn mistakenly claims.

The biggest long-term threat to the treaty’s survival is not the acquisition of nuclear weapons by a few more governments, unlikely as that may be. The main threat to the NPT is the continued buildup and modernization of existing nuclear arsenals by the five recognized nuclear weapons states.