Bring North Korea Policy Back to Reality

At present, the U.S. and its allies are like archers at the bottom of a high mountain trying to hit a target on the peak.

Ankit Panda and Toby Dalton make the case for acknowledging the reality that North Korea is a nuclear weapons state and won’t be disarming:

The most important quality of any move toward acceptance of a nuclear-armed North Korea would be openly acknowledging the nuclear deterrence relationship that exists between Pyongyang and Washington and subsequently pursuing risk reduction negotiations that begin from the premise that both sides hold a shared interest in averting nuclear war. Continuing to insist on denuclearization means there will be no diplomacy that could enable an off-ramp from the spiraling security crisis taking place and that could promote stability in the deterrence relationship that already exists as a matter of fact.

No policy can be successful if it is significantly or wholly divorced from reality. That doesn’t guarantee success for a policy that starts with the acknowledgment that North Korea’s arsenal isn’t going anywhere, but we know that the current one cannot possibly succeed while denying the obvious. At present, the U.S. and its allies are like archers at the bottom of a high mountain trying to hit a target on the peak. No matter how accurate they are and no matter how powerful their bows may be, they will never hit the target because it is beyond their reach. They can either choose to aim lower at something they have a chance of hitting, or they can continue wasting their efforts and watching as the problem grows worse. Meanwhile, the situation on the Korean Peninsula is becoming more dangerous and unstable, and at some point it will no longer be possible for the U.S. and its allies to neglect it.