Biden's Stagnant Venezuela Policy Has to Change

The U.S. should stop punishing the people of Venezuela in a vain effort to strike at Maduro.

Geoff Ramsey urges Biden to change the stagnant Venezuela policy that he inherited from Trump:

After 11 months in office, the administration has not significantly altered U.S. policy. Indeed, in January 2022, Biden will almost certainly reemphasize the Trump administration’s recognition of the opposition coalition led by Guaidó as Venezuela’s legal government. Regardless of the constitutional questions at stake, it remains unclear how this will advance democracy in Venezuela, and members of Guaidó’s own circle have issued calls to revise this strategy.

In the absence of a clear plan, the broad strokes of U.S. policy toward Venezuela remain unchanged — with slightly more rhetorical emphasis on the need for a political solution. Neither the State Department nor the White House has detailed how the United States will actually ensure successful negotiations to resolve the country’s crisis.

There are few U.S. policies more in need of changing than this one. The U.S. pursuit of regime change in Venezuela has been a flop from the start, and intensifying sanctions have only worsened conditions in the country. Next month will be the third anniversary of the U.S. recognition of Guaidó as the interim president, and he is as far removed from taking office as he has ever been. For some reason, the Biden administration has been continuing with the charade of pretending that an opposition politician with no official role and no control over anything is the “legitimate” president of the country. Even his own would-be foreign minister has lost confidence in Guaidó and quit, and this defection reflects the fractured nature of the opposition. It is one of the many oddities of American regime change policies that our government retains more confidence in a failed opposition leader than many of the people in the opposition.

“Maximum pressure” sanctions on Venezuela have been particularly harsh, and they have been imposed on a country that was already suffering from severe economic and humanitarian crises. Maduro has tightened his grip on power, and he and his allies appear to be firmly entrenched. Far from pushing Maduro out, “maximum pressure” has caused him to hold on to power for dear life. The military has not turned on Maduro so far, and it seems unlikely that the top military leadership will abandon him anytime soon. The Trump administration jumped on the regime change bandwagon because they thought they were pushing on an open door and would be able to achieve a quick win that they could use to pander to voters in Florida. Instead, Venezuela is in even worse straits than it was then, there is no realistic prospect of a change in political leadership in the foreseeable future, and U.S. meddling has strengthened the forces it was supposed to be weakening. You could hardly ask for a clearer example of a complete failure of U.S. policy than this.

It is not surprising or unexpected that economic warfare has worked in Maduro’s favor. NPR reported earlier this month on the situation:

But instead of weakening Maduro, the crisis has given his government more leverage over the population through its control of vital welfare programs, like monthly food handouts, says Temir Porras, a former top aide to Maduro.

"I think there is a misunderstanding that economic hardship [automatically] translates into political change," says Porras, who is now a visiting professor of political science at Sciences Po university in Paris. Instead, he says, "the poorest of the Venezuelans become more dependent on any assistance they can get from government agencies."

Sanctions hawks continue to rely on a crude theory of political change in which imposing severe hardship causes the immiserated population to rise up in protest. Of course, what predictably happens is that making people poorer and making them more preoccupied with basic material needs serve the status quo and the forces of authoritarianism. Authoritarian rulers may not want to be under sanctions, but they know how to turn a sanctions regime to their advantage. When the population faces greater scarcity because of sanctions, they are forced to rely on the existing authorities more. Political dissent and resistance become more difficult, and people struggling to feed their families have much less time and energy to devote to political activism and protest.

Economic coercion can destroy lives and livelihoods, but it does not bring freedom, accountability, or justice. There is no way that it could. As long as Venezuela is being throttled by “maximum pressure” sanctions, it will continue to be punished twice over by Maduro’s misrule and U.S. interference. Lifting sanctions might not lead to political change in the near term, but it gives the Venezuelan people some room to breathe and recover from years of relentless misery. The U.S. should stop punishing the people of Venezuela in a vain effort to strike at Maduro. All that the economic war has done is to bludgeon innocent people and strengthen Maduro’s hand. It is high time for that war to end.