Attacking Venezuela Is Reckless and Illegal

It is time for the U.S. to leave Venezuela alone.

The Financial Times reported over the weekend about the possibility of U.S. attacks on Venezuela in the coming weeks:

One possibility highlighted by experts is that Trump may decide to fire Tomahawk cruise missiles from navy destroyers or the submarine at targets inside Venezuela. These could include cocaine-producing laboratories or bases for Colombian Marxist guerrillas involved in the drug trade and operating from Venezuela.

Firing off missiles is the sort of useless performative militarism that the president seems to enjoy most, so this is probably what will happen. Trump could order strikes, blow up a few targets, and then boast about how tough he is. Contrary to conventional wisdom, Trump is not averse to using force. He has proven that more than once this year with his illegal bombings of Yemen and Iran. If the hawks in his Cabinet can persuade him that raining missiles down on Venezuela will be low-risk and politically beneficial, he will jump at the chance.

It is possible that Trump might entertain riskier operations aimed at capturing or killing Maduro. According to the FT report, this is not as unlikely as it sounds:

“I am 100 per cent sure that the aim of this operation is to arrest Maduro and get him out of power,” said one person who has been involved in discussions about the naval operation.

The Trump administration has been deliberately blurring the line between the Venezuelan government and cartels by accusing Maduro of being nothing more than the head of a cartel himself. They don’t accept that he is the president of Venezuela, and so it isn’t hard to imagine them treating him as if he were just a drug kingpin and not a head of state. They don’t need to invade Venezuela with a large force to carry out a raid to abduct or assassinate Maduro.

It is worth remembering that any military action that the U.S. takes in Venezuela will be illegal under both U.S. and international law. Congress hasn’t authorized the use of force against any groups in Venezuela or the Venezuelan government. Firing missiles into Venezuela would be an act of unprovoked aggression and a violation of Venezuelan sovereignty. Obviously any operation aimed at removing the de facto president would be an egregious act of war.

There is unfortunately a precedent for military intervention against a foreign leader in the name of combating drug trafficking. The U.S. illegally invaded Panama in 1989 to remove Manuel Noriega. The intervention was brief, but it still killed hundreds of civilians. If the Trump administration assumes that attacking Venezuela will be as easy as the so-called Operation Just Cause, they are likely to be sorely disappointed. Venezuela is a much larger country, there are lots of armed groups that have a stake in preserving the status quo, and the Venezuelan military has remained loyal to Maduro.

The U.S. shouldn’t attack Venezuela and it shouldn’t seek regime change there. For one thing, our government has no right to do either of these things, and neither would make the United States more secure. The Venezuelan government poses no threat to us. The very idea is laughable. Previous attempts at regime change in Venezuela under Trump have failed spectacularly, and I wouldn’t assume that a new attempt will be any more successful. At best, it will be a waste of time and resources and another example of reckless American hubris.

The right thing for the U.S. to do in Venezuela is to end its ruthless economic war against the people by lifting all broad sanctions. The U.S. was wrong to try to strangle Venezuela into submission. Our government has already caused the people of Venezuela tremendous harm and hardship. It is time for the U.S. to leave Venezuela alone.