A War Scare Over Nothing

Sometimes there is no need for deterrence because no attack was being planned.

James Acton and Nicole Grajewski review the history of a strange war scare in 1980:

According to a draft of this document (which was personally reviewed and approved by Carter and is held in his presidential library), Muskie told Gromyko that any “military attempt to gain control of the Persian Gulf area, including specifically Soviet military action in Iran, could lead to a direct military confrontation with the U.S.” He added that such a confrontation would have “incalculable consequences”—a phrase that the U.S. government had used previously to convey nuclear threats. It was almost certainly meant by Muskie, and probably understood by Gromyko, as such.

Although this war scare was just that—a scare—it could have turned into something more.

It is strange to think that the U.S. and the Soviet Union were both so convinced that the other side might intervene in Iran in response to the revolution there. The habit of exaggerating the capabilities and intentions of adversaries frequently leads to such errors. Neither side had any intention of attacking Iran, but both fooled themselves into perceiving hostile intent where it didn’t exist.