A Negotiated End Is Preferable to a Prolonged War

Refusing negotiation on the assumption that total victory is certain is irresponsible and condemns the belligerents to years of fruitless conflict.

Ben Lefkowitz and Kori Schake seem to think that indulging people’s fantasies about the war in Ukraine is a good idea:

More problematic than the proclivities of potential mediators is the simple fact that the Ukrainian people do not want this war to end in a negotiated settlement. Polling in early February found that 97 percent of Ukrainians believe they will defeat Russia, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has emphasized that any settlement must include a “withdrawal of Russian troops from our entire independent land,” including Crimea.

The Ukrainian goal of retaking all of their territory is understandable, but it is unrealistic. It is also understandable that the Ukrainian government does not want to negotiate with the government that attacked their country, but negotiation cannot be ruled out as an option if it stands even a slight chance of halting the fighting. As Sam Charap argued in an important Foreign Affairs article this summer, “neither side has the capacity — even with external help — to achieve a decisive military victory over the other.” If that’s right, this war will have to end in a negotiation, and both sides will eventually be compelled to accept an outcome that falls short of their most ambitious goals.