Trump's 'Olive Branch' Is No Such Thing

Every time Trump opens his mouth about this subject, he proves that he has no interest in finding a diplomatic solution.

The president talked about offering an “olive branch” to Iran in his Riyadh speech yesterday, but his remarks today confirm that he doesn’t really want to reach an agreement:

President Donald Trump told Gulf leaders on Wednesday he urgently wants “to make a deal” with Iran to wind down its nuclear program but Tehran must end its support of proxy groups throughout the region [bold mine-DL] as part of any potential agreement.

Trump frequently vacillates between saying that the only thing he cares about is preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and tacking on a bunch of other unrelated demands that Iran will never accept. If nonproliferation were his only concern, he would not make demands about irrelevant issues. Every time Trump opens his mouth about this subject, he proves that he has no interest in finding a diplomatic solution.

This is one of the recurring problems when hardliners feign interest in diplomacy. Their idea of diplomacy is one where the U.S. dictates terms to the other side and the other side caves to those demands. It never occurs to hardliners to moderate their demands because they don’t think the other side has legitimate interests that have to be taken into account. Hardliners hate real diplomacy because it doesn’t work the way they want it to.

The only reason to add multiple non-starter demands to negotiations is to provoke a conflict. I am reminded of the scene from the show Rome where Antony and Cleopatra are negotiating with a delegation sent by Octavian over the price for grain shipments from Egypt. Antony insists that they pay triple the normal price and that Carthage be added to the territories under his control.

The senators accept Antony’s extortionate demands out of necessity, but then at the last minute he tacks on a demand for contol of Spain as well. The last demand is too much for them and they walk out. Antony knew that they would never agree to those terms, and he added the last demand because he wanted a war. In the end, of course, he eventually gets the war he wants, but it doesn’t turn out well for him.

Iran isn’t going to negotiate about its relationships with these groups. Even if the U.S. were prepared to offer them something significant as an incentive, they would not want to end relationships that they have been cultivating for decades. When he brings this up, Trump is proving that the “deal” he wants is Iranian capitulation across the board. This isn’t an olive branch. It’s a hickory switch that he wants to use to beat them.

Trump said a lot of things in his Riyadh speech that sounded good, but as Van Jackson reminds us “Trump’s rhetoric never matches his reality and that’s the case here too.” He says he is offering Iran an olive branch, but then within twenty-four hours of that he is making such absurd maximalist demands that he might as well be calling for regime change. Trump’s approach to negotiations is all stick and no carrot, and that is why he regularly comes away empty-handed.