Trump's Gift to the IRGC

The most aggressive enemies of the Islamic Republic keep blundering into giving it a lifeline.

Danny Citrinowicz comments on how the would-be regime changers helped the Iranian government to survive:

But instead of accelerating that change, the U.S.-Israeli war set it back. Khamenei’s death disrupted Iran’s evolution and provided the regime with an opportunity to consolidate. Paradoxically, the external pressure meant to topple the Iranian regime has helped preserve it.

That seems right to me. This was always going to be the effect of foreign aggression. It shouldn’t come as any surprise that an external threat strengthens a government’s position at home. Especially when foreign powers launch an unprovoked attack on the country, even many opponents of a government will usually set aside their grievances out of patriotic solidarity.

Much the same thing happened when Iraq invaded Iran in 1980. The Iraqi government under Saddam Hussein thought that Iran was vulnerable and too weak to resist. Then the Iraqi invasion arguably saved the revolutionary government and gave it a popular nationalist cause to rally around. The most aggressive enemies of the Islamic Republic keep blundering into giving it a lifeline.