Stop Peddling the Fantasy of 'Decisive Victory' in Ukraine
Ukraine cannot achieve the goals that the zealots want.
Andriy Zagorodnyuk and Eliot Cohen propose that the U.S. and its allies should live in a fantasy world:
The West must explicitly state that its goal is a decisive Ukrainian victory and Russian defeat, and it must commit to supplying Kyiv with direct military aid and to supporting the country’s burgeoning defense industry. Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, must work to advance until they can expel Russian forces from all occupied territory, including Crimea. As Ukraine makes progress toward this goal, it will eventually become clear to Russian citizens that they will continue to lose not only ground in Ukraine but also vast human and economic resources—and their future prospects for prosperity and stability. At that point, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime could come under substantial pressure, from both within and without, to end the war on terms favorable to Ukraine.
The failure of Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year should have put an end to the illusion that “decisive Ukrainian victory” is possible. Continuing to encourage Ukraine to fight on in the pursuit of unrealistic goals is reckless and destructive. Even if Western military assistance could be guaranteed for the foreseeable future, Ukraine’s manpower shortage is not going away. Explicitly stating a fanciful goal is not going to conjure new batallions out of thin air. The hardline authors seem to think that the problem is primarily one of will and determination rather than one of resources, so they imagine that the problem can be solved with a sufficient show of resolve. As usual, the hardliners are wrong.